A GLOBAL CALL FOR ACTION

World Wide Petition against the Escalation in Iraq

Stop The Escalation

Dear friends,

Prof. Jean Bricmont, a Belgian scientist, specialist in theoretical physics, and author on politics, who was member of the prosecution at the BRussells Tribunal, has written a short but strong statement "Stop the escalation" (see the text after this message, in English, French and Dutch). It has been signed already by several distinghuised people (see underneath).

We feel that we can't wait any longer to do something. We hope that you and/or your organisation will sign this letter, giving the call of prof Bricmont the resonance it deserves and he aimed at in writing it.

Now that we know, since the evening of 28th of October 2004, from an article in the Lancet, based on a survey by Johns Hopkins University, that at least 100.000 Iraqi civilians died in the war, we feel this petition is urgent, so we send it out now.

We hope you join us in our outcry over the ongoing massacres by signing this petition against the escalation.

Yours in struggle for peace.

Prof.Lieven De Cauter, Dirk Adriaensens, Hana Al Bayaty and Patrick Deboosere,
on behalf of the BRussells Tribunal committee.

Or you can also send a message with “I SIGN” to: [email protected], please add your name, profession and country (and organisation if needed).

please spread as largely as possible.

STOP THE ESCALATION

"Excluding information from Falluja, a Lancet report of october 29 estimates that 100,000 more Iraqis died than would have been expected had the invasion not occurred. Eighty-four percent of the deaths were reported to be caused by the actions of Coalition forces and 95 percent of those deaths were due to air strikes and artillery."(Reuters, October 28, 2004)

Far from being over, the war in Iraq has only begun. The United States do not seem to be able to defeat the Iraqi resistance with the means they have been using. But neither can they accept their setbacks. The very arrogance with which the war was declared and waged has put all their prestige at stake in Iraq and, thereby, decades of efforts to assure their world domination. The stakes are even greater than in the Vietnam war. The United States cannot get out of Iraq unless they leave behind a friendly government, but today they have so few friends in that part of the world that no democratic election can produce such a government.

As a result the U.S. government will seek to defeat the resistance by all possible means. The effort is already underway to demonize the resistance in world opinion by associating it with abductions and murders condemned by virtually the whole spectrum of political organizations in the Arab world.

We demand that the United States face up to reality, unconditionally withdraw their troops from Iraq , and draw the necessary conclusions as to the unacceptable nature of preventive war. It is an illusion to ask that the U.S. forces remain until Iraq is pacified or stabilized, because their very presence is so hated that it constitutes the main obstacle to any sort of pacification.

Meanwhile, we affirm that we shall oppose by all peaceful and legal methods every attempt to crush the Iraqi resistance by a military escalation such as was attempted during the Vietnam war. We call on all governments to grant asylum to American military personnel refusing to serve in Iraq. We shall do our best to spread all available information to counter the war propaganda, and we shall try to mobilize world public opinion, as in 2002, to demand that the United States abandon their efforts to impose a military solution on Iraq.

CONTRE L'ESCALADE

"excluant information sur Falluja, un rapport publié par The Lancet le 29 octobre estime que 100.000 Irakiens de plus ont mouru que expecté si l’invasion n’aurait pas eu lieu. 84 pourcent des morts sont rapporté d’être due aux actions des forces de la coalition et 95 de ces morts sont du a des attaques aeriens et d’ artillerie "(Reuters, October 28, 2004)

Loin d’être finie, la guerre en Irak ne fait que commencer. Les États-Unis ne semblent pas arriver à vaincre la résistance irakienne avec les moyens qu’ils utilisent. Mais ils ne peuvent pas non plus reculer: l’arrogance même avec laquelle la guerre a été déclarée et menée fait en sorte que tout leur prestige est en jeu en Irak et, avec lui, des décennies d’efforts visant à la domination du monde. L’enjeu pour eux est encore plus considérable que lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Les États-Unis ne peuvent quitter l’Irak qu’en laissant derrière eux un gouvernement ami, mais ils n’ont aujourd’hui que très peu d’amis dans cette partie du monde et aucune élection démocratique ne pourra produire un tel gouvernement.

Par conséquent ils chercheront à vaincre la résistance par tous les moyens. On tente déjà de démoniser celle-ci dans l’opinion publique mondiale en l’associant à des enlèvements et des assassinats condamnés par la quasi-totalité des organisations politiques du monde arabe.

Nous demandons que les États-Unis fassent preuve de réalisme, retirent leurs troupes d’Irak sans condition, et en tirent les conclusions qui s’imposent concernant le caractère inaceptable des guerres préventives. Il est illusoire de demander que leurs forces armées restent jusqu’à ce que l’Irak soit pacifié ou stabilisé, parce que leur présence est tellement détestée qu’elle constitue le principal obstacle à toute pacification. En attendant, nous affirmons que nous nous opposerons par tous les moyens pacifiques et légaux à toute tentative d’écraser la résistance irakienne par une escalade militaire, comme cela a été tenté lors de la guerre du Viêt-Nam. Nous demandons que tous les gouvernements accordent l’asile politique aux déserteurs américains. Nous nous efforcerons de diffuser toutes les informations permettant de contrer la propagande de guerre et nous tenterons de mobiliser l’opinion publique mondiale, comme en 2002, afin d’exiger que les États-Unis renoncent à chercher une solution militaire à la situation en Irak.

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TEGEN DE ESCALATIE

“ Met uitsluiting van cijfers uit falluja, stelt een rapport gepubliceerd in The Lancet van 29 oktober, dat naar schatting 100.000 Irakezen meer zijn omgekomen dan het geval zou geweest zijn indien de invasie niet had plaats gevonden. 84 % van deze doden zouden volgens het rapport veroorzaakt zijn door acties van de coalitietroepen en 95 % daarvan zijn te wijten aan luchtaanvallen en artillerie. “(Reuters, October 28, 2004)

De oorlog in Iraq is verre van voorbij. Hij is eigenlijk pas begonnen. De Verenigde Staten schijnen er maar niet in te slagen het Iraaks verzet te overwinnen met de huidige middelen. Maar ze kunnen evenmin terug: de arrogantie waarmee de oorlog werd verklaard en gevoerd maakt dat hun prestige op het spel staat in Irak. En daarmee ook decennia van pogingen tot werelddominantie. De inzet is groter dan in de oorlog in Vietnam. De Verenigde Staten kunnen Irak slechts verlaten als er een bevriende regering is geïnstalleerd. Maar ze hebben in dit deel van de wereld tegenwoordig erg weinig vrienden. En geen enkele democratische verkiezing kan een dergelijke regering voortbrengen.

Dus zal de Amerikaanse regering proberen het verzet te overwinnen met alle mogelijke middelen. Men is reeds bezig om het verzet te demoniseren in de ogen van de publieke wereldopinie door het in verband te brengen met ontvoeringen en moorden die door zowat alle politieke organisaties van de Arabische wereld worden veroordeeld.

Wij vragen dat de Verenigde Staten zich realistisch opstellen, hun troepen onvoorwaardelijk terugtrekken en zich bezinnen over het onaanvaardbare karakter van preventieve oorlogen. Het is geen goed idee dat hun troepen blijven tot Irak zou zijn gepacificeerd of gestabiliseerd, want hun aanwezigheid wordt zo erg verafschuwd dat ze het belangrijkste obstakel vormt voor elke pacificatie.

In afwachting bevestigen wij dat wij ons met alle vreedzame en legale middelen zullen verzetten tegen elke poging om het Iraaks verzet te breken door een militaire escalatie, zoals dat vroeger geprobeerd werd in Vietnam. Wij vragen dat alle regeringen politiek asiel toekennen aan Amerikaanse deserteurs. Wij zullen ons inspannen om alle informatie te verspreiden om de oorlogspropaganda tegen te gaan. En wij zullen proberen om de publieke opinie van de wereld te mobiliseren, zoals in 2002, om te eisen dat de Verenigde staten afzien van een militaire oplossing van de situatie in Irak.

Petizione mondiale contro l'escalation della guerra in Iraq - una iniziativa del BRussells Tribunal

FERMIAMO L'ESCALATION

"Senza tener conto delle informazioni su Falluja, un rapporto della rivista Lancet del 29 ottobre stima in 100.000 gli iracheni morti a seguito dell'invasione. L'84% delle morti vengono attribuite ad azioni compiute dalle forze della coalizione e il 95% di quelle morti vengono attribuite ai bombardamenti ed agli attacchi dell'artiglieria". (Reuters, 28 ottobre 2004)

La guerra irachena è ben lontana dall'essere conclusa, anzi è appena iniziata. Gli Stati uniti non sembrano in grado di sconfiggere la resistenza irachena con i mezzi usati finora. D'altronde non possono accettare questo imprevisto. L'arroganza propria con cui questa guerra è stata dichiarata e condotta sta mettendo in discussione tutto il loro prestigio e di conseguenza decenni di di sforzi per assicurare il loro dominio nel mondo. La posta in gioco è più alta di quanto non fosse in Vietnam. Gli Stati uniti non possono lasciare l'Iraq se non dopo aver insediato un governo amico, ma oggi hanno così pochi amici in quella parte del mondo che nessuna elezione democratica può produrre un tale tipo di governo.

Di conseguenza il governo statunitense cercherà di sconfiggere la resistenza ad ogni costo. E' in corso un'operazione tesa a demonizzare la resistenza presso l'opinione pubblica mondiale associandola ai rapimenti e agli assassini condannati praticamente da tutto lo spettro delle organizzazioni politiche del mondo arabo.

Chiediamo che gli Stati uniti guardino in faccia la realtà, si ritirino incondizionatamente dall'Iraq e traggano le necessarie conclusioni sulla natura inacettabile della guerra preventiva. E' illusorio chiedere che le forze nordamericane restino fino a che l'Iraq non sarà pacificato perchè la loro presenza è talmente odiata che costituisce l'ostacolo principale verso qualsiasi forma di pace.

Nel frattempo affermiamo che ci opporremo con tutti i mezzi pacifici e legali a qualsiasi tentativo di schiacciare la resistenza irachena con una escalation militare come si tentò di fare in Vietnam. Facciamo appello a tutti i governi perchè garantiscano asilo a tutto il personale militare statunitense che si rifiuterà di operare in Iraq. Faremo del nostro meglio per diffondere tutte le informazioni disponibili per contrastare la propaganda di guerra e cercheremo di mobuilitare l'opinione pubblica mondiale, come nel 2002, per chiedere che gli Stati uniti abbandonino il loro tentativo di imporre una soluzione militare in Iraq.

Weltweite Petition gegen eine weitere Eskalation im Irak
Eine Initiative des BRussells Tribunal.

Die folgende Petition wurde von Prof. Jean Bricmont, einem international bekannten belgischen Wissenschaftler und Autor, verfaßt und wird von verschiedenen Organisationen unterstützt und in mehreren Sprachen verbreitet. Zu den Erstunterzeichnern gehören Noam Chomsky, Prof. Ed Herman und Michael Parenti.

Stoppt die Eskalation!

Der Krieg im Irak ist noch lange nicht vorbei: Er hat gerade erst begonnen. Offenbar sind die Ver-einigten Staaten mit den bisher eingesetzten Mitteln nicht in der Lage, den irakischen Widerstand zu besiegen.

Gleichzeitig ist es den USA unmöglich, ihre Rückschläge zu akzeptieren. Gerade durch die Arro-ganz, mit der sie diesen Krieg begonnen und geführt haben, haben sie im Irak ihr gesamtes Prestige aufs Spiel gesetzt - und damit zugleich ihre jahrzehntelangen Bestrebungen zur Beherrschung der Welt in Gefahr gebracht. Heute geht es für die Vereinigten Staaten sogar um noch mehr als in Viet-nam. Die USA können sich nicht aus dem Irak zurückziehen, wenn es ihnen nicht gelingt, dort ein ihnen freundlich gesonnenes Regime zu hinterlassen. Andererseits haben sie heute in diesem Teil der Welt so wenig Freunde, dass eine derartige Regierung nie aus irgendwie gearteten demokrati-schen Wahlen hervorgehen kann.

Aus diesen Gründen wird die US-Regierung mit allen Mit-teln versuchen, den irakischen Widerstand zu niederzuzwingen. Schon jetzt sind Bemühungen im Gang, den Widerstand vor der Weltöffentlichkeit zu dämonisieren, indem man ihn mit Entführun-gen und Morden in Verbindung bringt, die von praktisch allen politischen Organisationen in der arabischen Welt scharf verurteilt werden.

Wir fordern, dass die USA sich der Realität im Irak stellen, ihre Truppen bedingungslos zurückzie-hen und die sich daraus ergebenden Schlüsse zum Verbot von Präventivkriegen ziehen. Es ist illusi-onär zu fordern, dass die Streitkräfte der USA im Irak bleiben, bis das Land befriedet oder stabili-siert ist, da die Präsenz gerade dieser Truppen selbst dort derart verhasst ist, dass sie das Haupthin-dernis für jede Art von Befriedung darstellt.

Bis dieser Rückzug bewerkstelligt ist, bekräftigen wir, dass wir uns mit allen uns zur Verfügung stehenden friedlichen und legalen Mitteln gegen jeden Versuch wenden werden, den irakischen Widerstand durch eine Militäreskalation niederzuschlagen, wie es während des Vietnam-Krieges mit dem vietnamesischen Widerstand versucht wurde. Wir rufen alle Regierungen auf, amerikani-schen Soldaten, die den Dienst im Irak verweigern, Asyl zu gewähren. Wir werden unser Bestes tun zur Verbreitung sämtlicher verfügbaren Informationen , um der US-amerikanischen Kriegspropa-ganda entgegenzutreten, und wir werden versuchen, die Weltöffentlichkeit wie 2002 und 2003 für die Forderung zu mobilisieren, dass die Vereinigten Staaten ihre Bemühungen zur Durchsetzung einer militärischen "Lösung" im Irak aufgeben.

PAREMOS LA ESCALADA DE VIOLENCIA

"Excluyendo las informaciones procedentes de Faluja,un reportaje de 'Lancet' del 29 de Octubre estima que han muerto 100.000 iraquíes más de los que lo hubieran hecho si la ocupación no se hubiera producido. El 84% de estas muertes se produjeron como consecuencia de las acciones de la Fuerzas de la Coalición y el 95 % por bombardeos de la aviación,informa este reportaje." (Reuters,28 de Octubre ,2004).

La guerra no ha terminado,todo lo contrario,no ha hecho más que empezar. Lo Estados Unidos no parecen capaces de terminar con la Resistencia iraquí con todos los medios que están utilizando.Pero tampoco parecen aceptar sus derrotas.Su enorme arrogancia que les impulsó a iniciar esta guerra y mantenerla ha puesto su prestigio en juego ,así como decadas de esfuerzos para dominar el mundo.Lo que está en juego es mucho más importante que lo estaba en la guerra de Vietnam. EEUU no puede abandonar Iraq si no deja allí un Gobierno amigo,pero hoy por hoy tienen tan pocos amigos en esa parte del mundo, que ningunas Elecciones democráticas podrían desembocar en un Gobierno así.

Como resultado el Gobierno USA tiene la intención de acabar con la Resistencia iraquí por todos los medios.De momento ya están intentando soterradamente demonizarla ante la opinión pública mundial,conectandola con secuestros y ejecuciones que son condenados por la practica mayoría del espectro de organizaciones políticas mundo árabe.

Exigimos a los Estados Unidos que se enfrenten a la realidad,que retiren incondicionalmente sus tropas de Iraq y saquen las pertinentes conclusiones sobre la inaceptale naturaleza de la Guerra Preventiva. Es ilusorio pedir que las tropas norteamericanas se queden hasta que Iraq esté pacificado y estabilizado porque su presencia resulta tan odiosa,que por sí sola ya constituye un obstáculo para esa misma pacificación.

Mientras tanto afirmamos nuestra intención de oponernos con todos los métodos pacíficos y legales a cualquier intento de aplastar a la Resistencia Iraquí con escaladas militares tal y como sucedió en Vietnam. Pedimos a todos los Gobiernos que acepten conceder refugio y garanticen asilo a todo personal militar norteamericano que renuncie a seguir luchando en esta Guerra. Por nuestra parte intentaremos contrarestar toda la propaganda de Guerra, extendiendo toda la información de que dispongamos,así como a movilizar a la opinión pública mundial,como hicimos en 2002,para exigir que los Estados Unidos abandonen sus esfuerzos de imponer una solución militar en Iraq.

(traducción Cristina Soler, miembro del Grupo Babels)

أيها الأصدقاء الأعزاء

كتب جان بريكمونت العالم البلجيكي المتخصص بالفيزياء النظرية الذي له مؤلفات سياسية والذي كان أيضاً عضواً بهيئة الإدعاء في محكمة بروكسل، كتب رسالة قصيرة وقوية تحت عنوان "أوقفوا التصعيد" (شاهد النص بعد هذه الرسالة باللغات الإنكليزية والفرنسية والهولندية). وقد تم التوقيع على هذه الرسالة من قبل العديد من الأشخاص البارزين (أنظر أدناه).

نحن نشعر بأنه لا يمكننا الإنتضار أكثر من ذلك لعمل شئ ما، فنحن نأمل بأنك و/أو منظمتك ستوقع على هذه الرسالة، معطين بذلك دعوة الأستاذ بريكمونت الصدى الذي تستحقه والذي إستهدفه عندما كتبها.

ونحن نعلم الآن ومنذ مساء يوم 28 أكتوبر 2004، من خلال مقالة في مجلة "لانسيت" الذي إعتمد على على عملية إحصاء قامت بها جامعة جون هوبكنز بأنه قد إستشهد 100.000 مواطن عراقي مدني على الأقل منذ بداية الحرب على العراق. ولهذا فنحن نعتقد بأن هذا الإلتماس عاجل جداً ويجب إرساله الآن.

نأمل أن تلتحق بنا بصرختنا هذه حول المجازر التي تجري الآن بتوقيعك على هذا الإلتماس ضد هذا التصعيد الخطر.

المخلص لكم في الكفاح من أجل السلام

الأستاذ ليفين دي كاوتر والسيد ديرك أدريانسين والأنسة هناء البياتي والسيد باتريك ديبوسير

نيابة عن لجنة محكمة بروكسل. (شاهد موقع www.brusselstribunal.org على شبكة الإنترنت)

تم توزيع هذه الرسالة بدعم كامل من المحكمة الدولية حول العراق (شاهد موقع www.worldtribunal.org على شبكة الإنترنت) والتي تنتمي إليها لجنة محكمة بروكسل.

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إذا رغبت بالتوقيع، فالرجاء الإجابة بعبارة "I SIGN" وأرسلها إلى [email protected] ، والرجاء كتابة إسمك ومهنتك وبلدك (وإسم المنظمة إن كنت ترغب بذلك).

(www.brusselstribunal.org)

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الرجاء توزيعها بأوسع ما يمكن

أوقفوا التصعيد

"بإستثناء المعلومات من الفلوجة، قدّر تقرير نشرته مجلة "لانسيت" بتأريخ 29 أكتوبر بأن100.000 عراقي قد إستشهدوا أكثر مما كان متوقعاً لو أن الإحتلال لم يحدث. و 84 بالمئة من الوفيات كان سببها عمليات قوات التحالف، وأن 95 بالمئة من هذه الوفيات كانت بسبب الهجمات الجوية والمدفعية." (رويترز، 28 أكتوبر 2004)

وبعيداً عن نهايتها، فإن الحرب في العراق قد بدأت تواً. يبدو أن الولايات المتحدة غير قادرة على دحر المقاومة العراقية بواسطة الطرق التي تستعملها، ولكنهم لا يستطيعون قبول إنتكاساتهم. وبعنجهيتهم التي أعلنوا من خلالها شن الحرب وضعوا هيبتهم على المحك في العراق، وكذلك جهودهم لعقود عديدة من أجل هيمنتهم على العالم، والتي هي أكبر مما حدث في حرب فيتنام. سوف لن تتمكن الولايات المتحدة الخروج من العراق إلا إذا تركت خلفها حكومة صديقة، إلا أنهم اليوم لا يمتلكون سوى القليل من الأصدقاء في ذلك المكان من العالم وحيث لا تتمكن إنتخابات ديمقراطية من خلق حكومة صديقة لهم.

ونتيجة لذلك، يجب علينا أن نأخذ في الحسبان بشكل جدي حدوث تصعيد عسكري بعد الإنتخابات – مباشرة في حالة عودة بوش لولاية ثانية، وربما تدريجياً في حالة فوز كيري. إلا أنه ليس للمرشح الديمقراطي نية للإنسحاب من العراق أكثر من بوش. وبهذا فإن حكومة الولايات المتحدة ستعمل على دحر المقاومة بكل الطرق الممكنة، وأن هذا الجهد قد سبق تفعيله من خلال حط قدر المقاومة عند الرأي العام من خلال ربطها بعمليات الإختطاف والقتل التي إستنكرتها واقعياً جميع أطياف المنظمات السياسية في العالم العربي.

إننا نطالب بأن تواجه الولايات المتحدة الحقيقة بإنسحاب قواتها غير المشروط من العراق وأن تعترف بالخلاصة الضرورية بعدم قبول طبيعة الحرب الإستباقية. إنه لمن الوهم السؤال حول بقاء القوات الأمريكية إلى أن يهدأ العراق أو يستقر، ذلك لأن وجودهم أساساً مكروه بشكل يمثل العقبة الرئيسية لأي شكل من أشكال الهدوء.

وإننا في نفس الوقت نؤكد معارضتنا، وبكل الطرق السلمية والقانونية، لكل محاولة للقضاء على المقاومة العراقية بواسطة التصعيد العسكري مثلما حدث خلال حرب فيتنام. إننا نطالب جميع الدول بمنح اللجوء السياسي لأفراد القوات العسكرية الأمريكية الذين يرفضون الخدمة في العراق. وسنعمل بجميع إمكانياتنا على نشر المعلومات المتوفرة لدينا لمواجهة الدعاية الحربية، وسنحاول تعبئة الرأي العام العالمي، كما حدث في عام 2002، للطلب من الولايات المتحدة بأن تتخلى عن جهودها في فرض الحل العسكري على العراق.

background :

100,000 Iraqi Deaths

By EMMA ROSS, AP Medical Writer

LONDON - A survey of deaths in Iraqi households estimates that as many as 100,000 more people may have died throughout the country in the 18 months after the U.S. invasion than would be expected based on the death rate before the war. There is no official figure for the number of Iraqis killed since the conflict began, but some non-governmental estimates range from 10,000 to 30,000. As of Wednesday, 1,081 U.S. servicemen had been killed, according to the U.S. Defense Department. The scientists who wrote the report concede that the data they based their projections on were of "limited precision," because the quality of the information depends on the accuracy of the household interviews used for the study. The interviewers were Iraqi, most of them doctors.

Designed and conducted by researchers at Johns Hopkins University , Columbia University and the Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad , the study is being published Thursday on the Web site of The Lancet medical journal. The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths seen since the invasion, and air strikes from coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths, the researchers wrote in the British-based journal. "Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children," they said. The report was released just days before the U.S. presidential election, and the lead researcher said he wanted it that way. The Lancet routinely publishes papers on the Web before they appear in print, particularly if it considers the findings of urgent public health interest.

Those reports then appear later in the print issue of the journal. The journal's spokesmen said they were uncertain which print issue the Iraqi report would appear in and said it was too late to make Friday's issue, and possibly too late for the Nov. 5 edition. Les Roberts, the lead researcher from Johns Hopkins, said the article's timing was up to him. "I emailed it in on Sept. 30 under the condition that it came out before the election," Roberts told The Asocciated Press. "My motive in doing that was not to skew the election. My motive was that if this came out during the campaign, both candidates would be forced to pledge to protect civilian lives in Iraq (news - web sites). "I was opposed to the war and I still think that the war was a bad idea, but I think that our science has transcended our perspectives," Roberts said. "As an American, I am really, really sorry to be reporting this."

Richard Peto, an expert on study methods who was not involved with the research, said the approach the scientists took is a reasonable one to investigate the Iraq death toll. However, it's possible that they may have zoned in on hotspots that might not be representative of the death toll across Iraq , said Peto, a professor of medical statistics at Oxford University in England . To conduct the survey, investigators visited 33 neighborhoods spread evenly across the country in September, randomly selecting clusters of 30 households to sample. Of the 988 households visited, 808, consisting of 7,868 people, agreed to participate in the survey. At each one they asked how many people lived in the home and how many births and deaths there had been since January 2002. The scientists then compared death rates in the 15 months before the invasion with those that occurred during the 18 months after the attack and adjusted those numbers to account for the different time periods.

Even though the sample size appears small, this type of survey is considered accurate and acceptable by scientists and was used to calculate war deaths in Kosovo in the late 1990s. The investigators worked in teams of three. Five of the six Iraqi interviewers were doctors and all six were fluent in English and Arabic. In the households reporting deaths, the person who died had to be living there at the time of the death and for more than two months before to be counted. In an attempt at firmer confirmation, the interviewers asked for death certificates in 78 households and were provided them 63 times. There were 46 deaths in the surveyed households before the war. After the invasion, there were 142 deaths. That is an increase from 5 deaths per 1,000 people per year to 12.3 per 1,000 people per year — more than double.

However, more than a third of the post-invasion deaths were reported in one cluster of households in the city Falluja, where fighting has been most intense recently. Because the fighting was so severe there, the numbers from that location may have exaggerated the overall picture. When the researchers recalculated the effect of the war without the statistics from Falluja, the deaths end up at 7.9 per 1,000 people per year — still 1.5 times higher than before the war. Even with Falluja factored out, the survey "indicates that the death toll associated with the invasion and occupation of Iraq is more likely than not about 100,000 people, and may be much higher," the report said. The most common causes of death before the invasion of Iraq were heart attacks, strokes and other chronic diseases. However, after the invasion, violence was recorded as the primary cause of death and was mainly attributed to coalition forces — with about 95 percent of those deaths caused by bombs or fire from helicopter gunships. Violent deaths — defined as those brought about by the intentional act of others — were reported in 15 of the 33 clusters. The chances of a violent death were 58 times higher after the invasion than before it, the researchers said.

Twelve of the 73 violent deaths were not attributed to coalition forces. The researchers said 28 children were killed by coalition forces in the survey households. Infant mortality rose from 29 deaths per 1,000 live births before the war to 57 deaths per 1,000 afterward. The researchers estimated the nationwide death toll due to the conflict by multiplying the difference between the two death rates by the estimated population of Iraq — 24.4 million at the start of the war. The result was then multiplied by 18 months, the average period between the invasion and the survey interviews. "We estimate that there were 98,000 extra deaths during the postwar period in the 97 percent of Iraq represented by all the clusters except Falluja," the researchers said in the journal.

"This isn't about individual soldiers doing bad things. This appears to be a problem with the approach to occupation in Iraq ," Roberts said. The researchers called for further confirmation by an independent body such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, or the World Health Organization (news - web sites). The study was funded by the Center for International Emergency Disaster and Refugee Studies at Johns Hopkins University and by the Small Arms Survey in Geneva, Switzerland, a research project based at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva .

The full dossier in The Lancet (PDF)